TRUDY / MANZANILLO WIND FORECASTS — REVISION 6
18 October 2026 — publication files prepared locally

Open trudy-manzanillo-wind-review.html for the English review. The article
includes NBM Oceanic, a directly labeled issue-date comparison figure, the
GFS timing explanation and a bounded airport-observation check.

REPRODUCE
python revision_analysis.py
python nbm_analysis.py
python production_figures.py
python prepare_blog.py --repo /absolute/path/to/GribStream/worktree
python build_review_r2.py
Requires Python, Pillow and CairoSVG. Run production_figures.py after the
original analysis so the revised comparison figure includes NBM and dates.
The preparation command writes seven publication-ready local blog files;
it does not deploy, publish, merge or push.

DATA
revision-requests.json / later-cycle-requests.json preserve the original six
forecast requests and CSV filenames. nbm-requests.json adds two NBM Oceanic
requests and all returned data. These use actual native Mercator centers.
nbm-findings.json contains the new coastal and time-sequence calculations.
The unqualified 10 m WIND and 50th-percentile fields are kept separate.
NBM is blended sustained-wind guidance; the other models use instantaneous
10 m wind. The original four-model maps and animation retain their scope.

mmzo-observation-probe.csv retains the 22 airport METAR reports retrieved
for October 17–18. observation-source.json records the exact public request
and SHA-256. These are point reports with irregular gaps, no exact 00 UTC
checkpoint report and missing gusts. No regional accuracy ranking is made.
regional-coverage.json records projected-domain checks. Manzanillo lies
outside NBM CONUS, HRRR, the currently served RRFS CONUS product, and the
served RTMA/URMA grids. NBM Oceanic covers this coast. This does not describe
every upstream RRFS domain or claim that any forecast product is observation.

ARTICLE
article-locales.json and article-translations*.json contain all seven locales,
including localized alt text, captions, methods and observation limitations.
Shared figure labels remain English. social-drafts-r2.txt is English review
copy. adversarial-review-r2.txt preserves the earlier research history;
revision-6-review.txt records this session's additional findings.

ATTRIBUTION
Met Office data: Crown copyright 2026, CC BY-SA 4.0. Derived comparison
figures: CC BY-SA 4.0. NOAA and ECMWF forecasts via GribStream; Natural Earth
coastlines. Source credits remain on every figure. MMZO observations from
the Iowa Environmental Mesonet METAR archive, with original reports retained.

MAP REGISTRATION CORRECTION
The Met Office wind raster now stretches to its native geographic bounds
(preserveAspectRatio="none"). The shared coastline and numerical results are
unchanged. All regional wind and pressure cells match independent upstream
NetCDF decoding at leads 36, 48 and 54 hours. Corrected map, animation and
research links are versioned to refresh cached copies.

REGRESSION CHECK
python check_map_registration.py
Checks rendered native cell centres and demonstrates failure without the fix.

ANIMATION COLOUR CORRECTION
All 19 GIF frames share a single fixed palette. Per-frame adaptive palettes
had changed legend colours despite fixed numerical bounds. The rendering
check now verifies an identical legend in every decoded GIF frame.
