REVISION 6 — NBM, OBSERVATIONS AND PUBLICATION PREPARATION
18 October 2026

User approved the proposed production preparation and suggested URMA/RTMA
for verification, then requested consideration of NBM/HRRR/RRFS.

Coverage: live catalog grids and the repository projection geometry place
Manzanillo outside served RTMA/URMA and NBM CONUS (about 365 km south of the
grid's projected southern edge) and outside HRRR / served RRFS CONUS (about
588 km south). These conclusions concern the actual GribStream products;
the upstream RRFS North America domain is a separate product scope.
NBM Oceanic covers the study area. No forecast is labeled observed truth.

NBM: retained two exact requests, 45,276 rows for the October 16 run's seven
3-hourly fields and 310 rows for the October 17 run's 24-hour checkpoint.
The first request retains 6,468 native 10 km Mercator centers in the same
storm box; the second keeps the 100 km coastal circle. All fields are finite,
point/time keys unique, initializations correct and row counts complete.
The original inline CSV bytes use CRLF; locally saved CSVs use LF. Restoring
CRLF reproduces each response SHA-256 recorded by MCP. Requests are preserved
exactly and signed download links are excluded from the package.

Coastal 50 km maxima: 102.6 and 105.48 km/h from unqualified 10 m WIND;
37.44 and 54.0 km/h from the distinct 50th-percentile field. Source NOAA
GRIB index confirms separate 10 m WIND messages for percentile and unqualified
outputs. Current NOAA documentation describes NBM as sustained-wind guidance.
The new prose and figure explicitly distinguish this from instantaneous
winds in the four raw models, rather than silently adding one to their plot.
The NBM forecast does not follow the later reduction in IFS. All three
products appear in the replacement comparison figure, with issue dates
written directly above the values and a fixed target time.

Observation probe: 22 MMZO airport reports for October 17–18, original raw
METAR retained. Around the checkpoint, 23:42 gives 8 knots, 01:06 gives
10 knots and 01:41 gives 25 knots. No exact 00 UTC report; long reporting
gaps; no gust values. This cannot establish the maximum within 50 km or
rank the models. The observation source is preserved and explained in all
seven locales. No model is used as independent observed ground truth.

Editorial: the early GFS peak is distinguished from its weaker evening
forecast. The replacement comparison chart uses two plainly dated columns.
All seven article versions, captions, alt text and methods share the same
quantified scope and include NBM. Publication metadata is prepared locally.
No deployment, production restart/configuration, merge, push or social
posting is authorized or performed by this preparation.
