ENGLISH SOCIAL COPY — REVISION 6 — UNPUBLISHED
All values are forecast regional maxima, except explicitly labeled airport reports.

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Trudy forecasts for Saturday evening split near Manzanillo: IFS 111 km/h within 50 km, Met Office 58. Across the wider storm area, both reached about 122–123 km/h. The wind footprint made the coastal difference. [ARTICLE_URL]

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The next day's runs predict the same Saturday evening: IFS falls to 74 km/h, Met Office stays near 59. NBM Oceanic keeps its coastal guidance near 103–105 km/h across the two issue dates. The forecasts still disagree. [ARTICLE_URL]

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GFS predicts a stronger early storm peak, then rapid weakening. The article follows these changes through maps, an hourly animation and a plainly dated comparison. I work on GribStream. [ARTICLE_URL]

LINKEDIN
IFS and Met Office put Trudy's storm-area maximum near 122–123 km/h for Saturday evening. Within 50 km of Manzanillo, including offshore water, their forecasts were 111 and 58 km/h.

The next day's runs predict the same hour. IFS revises its coastal maximum to 74 km/h; Met Office stays near 59. NBM Oceanic adds another operational forecast: 103 km/h in the earlier run, 105 km/h in the later one.

NBM supplies blended sustained-wind guidance. The four raw models in the article supply instantaneous 10 m winds. The comparison keeps those products distinct and follows changes in their coastal footprints.

The maps and hourly animation also show GFS predicting a stronger early storm peak, followed by rapid weakening. Airport observations provide a separate, limited point check; they do not establish the maximum over the coastal circle.

I work on GribStream. [ARTICLE_URL]

REDDIT DISCUSSION DRAFT — NO DESTINATION SELECTED
Title: Trudy forecasts split near Manzanillo; NBM Oceanic kept higher coastal winds after IFS revised down

Disclosure: I work on GribStream, which I used to retrieve the forecasts.

For October 18 at 00 UTC (October 17 at 18:00 CST), the October 16, 00 UTC runs give maxima within 50 km of Manzanillo of 111 km/h in IFS and 58 in Met Office. Their wider storm-area maxima are nearly equal, at 122 and 123 km/h.

The October 17 runs give 74 and 59 km/h for the same coastal circle and valid hour. NBM Oceanic remains around 103–105 km/h across those two issue dates. NBM is blended sustained-wind guidance; IFS and Met Office values here are instantaneous model winds.

The four-model maps preserve their served grids. GFS and Met Office supply the 19 actual hourly animation frames; IFS is 3-hourly and AIFS 6-hourly. NBM is shown separately with its published wind statistic and actual output times.

The served URMA/RTMA grids exclude Manzanillo. We retrieved nearby airport METARs, but their irregular point reports cannot establish a maximum across the 50 km sea-and-land circle. Which coastal stations or marine observations would support a properly matched regional verification?

[ARTICLE_URL]

Attach the four-model map and revised issue-date comparison as appropriate.
Keep source lines, dates, units and NBM's statistic qualification visible.
The article and social copy are local preparation only. No account or community
has been selected, no composer opened, no asset uploaded and no post sent.
