Global Ensemble Forecast System (Wave Prob GEFS)

Description

The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a probabilistic weather prediction system managed by NOAA. It utilizes multiple ensemble members to generate a range of possible outcomes, enhancing the ability to assess weather uncertainties and probabilities. The ensemble approach helps to capture the range of possible weather scenarios by running slightly different initial conditions or model configurations, which are referred to as ensemble members or components.

The GEFS Wave Probability product estimates the likelihood of wave heights exceeding specific thresholds, based on the spread of results from all ensemble members. By evaluating the range of possible wave scenarios, this product enables mariners, offshore operators, and coastal planners to quantify the probability of encountering hazardous wave conditions. The probabilistic nature of GEFS Wave Probability is particularly valuable for safety planning, as it provides actionable insight into both the most likely and the extreme scenarios for ocean wave activity.

Detail

• Product page: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/global-forecast/
• Key Features:
  • Utilizes an ensemble approach to estimate probabilities of various wave conditions.
  • Supports maritime safety and operations through enhanced wave prediction accuracy.
  • Incorporates data from buoys, ships, satellites, and numerical models.
• Resolution: 0.25° global grid.
• Temporal Coverage: Updated four times daily, with forecasts extending up to 10 days.
• Primary Use Cases: Maritime navigation, offshore operations, coastal management, and recreational marine activities.

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