spcltg4hr
SPC HREF 4-hour lightning-density probability is convective guidance aimed at lightning-sensitive operations. It is more targeted than a general precipitation forecast because it is built around thunderstorm electrical risk, which is often the operational trigger for outdoor venues, aviation ramps, construction, utilities, and recreation.
SPC describes its HREF calibrated thunder approach as combining ensemble evidence from simulated reflectivity, accumulated precipitation, and unstable thermodynamic profiles, then calibrating the probabilities against observed cloud-to-ground lightning. That design makes the product valuable when the practical question is whether an asset or point is likely to be close enough to lightning-producing convection to change posture.
Use this dataset alongside SPC Thunderstorm 4h and SPC Thunderstorm 1h for timing, and with HRRR sub-hourly when you need higher-frequency storm evolution around a site.
TSTM