GribStream

REFS CONUSメンバー：3 km格子の地上気象

GribStreamコード: refs2dfld

2026年10月22日00 UTC初期値、23日00 UTC有効（+24時間）のメンバー1の模擬合成反射強度。3 kmのCONUS格子。5 dBZ未満は背景色。NOAAの本運用前予報であり、レーダー観測ではありません。CC0データをGribStreamが描画。
2026年10月22日00 UTC初期値、23日00 UTC有効（+24時間）のメンバー1の模擬合成反射強度。3 kmのCONUS格子。5 dBZ未満は背景色。NOAAの本運用前予報であり、レーダー観測ではありません。CC0データをGribStreamが描画。

米国本土の気温、風、雨、雲、雷雨について、5つの予報を比較できます。各予報は固有のメンバー番号を持ち、60時間先まで追跡できます。

予報の概要

データセットrefs2dfld
格子CONUS · 3 km · 1799 × 1059
メンバー1, 2, 3, 4, 5
初期時刻（UTC）00 / 06 / 12 / 18 UTC
予報時間+0…60 h · Δt = 1 h
現行の項目数41

風の急変や降雨の時刻、雲と日射のシナリオ、地点ごとの判断に必要な閾値を比較できます。

RRFSの予報計算

NOAAのRapid Refresh Forecast System第1版は、Unified Forecast Systemの領域モデル用Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere（FV3）力学コアを使用します。北米領域の水平格子間隔は3 kmです。本データセットは1,799×1,059点のランベルト正角格子による米国本土出力を提供します。激しい対流、大雨、冬季気象などの短時間予報を目的とし、運用を継続するHRRRを補完します。NOAA GSL: RRFSv1、NCEP: RRFS products。

5メンバーが異なる理由

同一初期時刻のメンバーは、決定論的RRFSに対して初期条件、側面境界条件、物理過程を変化させます。初期の大気状態、領域外から入る気象系、雲や乱流の表現の違いを扱います。同じメンバーの変数を組み合わせると、その予報シナリオの時間発展を保てます。NWS SCN 26-48。

このアンサンブルの構成

本データセットは1回の初期化による5つの個別予報です。NOAAのREFS統計は現行と6時間前のRRFS決定論的・アンサンブル予報に、米国本土とアラスカでは現行と過去のHRRRも組み合わせます。この5メンバーだけの平均は、NOAAが公表するREFS平均・確率とは構成が異なります。NWS SCN 26-48。

解像度と不確実性の限界

3 km格子はメソスケールの構造を表現しますが、雷雨の正確な位置を保証せず、個々の竜巻を解像するものでもありません。未解像過程にはパラメタリゼーションが必要で、RRFSv1も対流パラメタリゼーションを使用します。「対流を許容する」とは、すべての対流を陽に解くという意味ではありません。物理過程と評価：NOAA GSL: RRFSv1、NCEP/EMC evaluation。

5メンバーの閾値超過頻度は20パーセントポイント刻みで、較正済み確率ではありません。全メンバーが一致しても共通の誤差は残り得ます。地点の判断では近隣格子、前後の時刻、連続する初期時刻を比較し、観測で検証してください。変更中のシステムの履歴は定常的な気候統計ではなく、HRRR、HREF、全球アンサンブルに対する精度の優劣も示しません。

地上系変数の意味

2D製品には地表付近の気象と気柱・雷雨診断が含まれます。合成反射強度はモデルによるシミュレーションで、レーダー観測ではありません。CAPEと対流抑制は対流環境を、上昇流ヘリシティは回転を示しますが、竜巻確率ではありません。降水や風の極値には各変数の時間区間を使用します。全変数・高度・単位・統計は下の表にあります。

用途に合う時間区間

瞬時値はある時刻、時間平均や極値は区間を表します。降水のacc-1hは直前1時間、acc-from-initは初期時刻からの積算です。+1時間では両者が一致します。単位は気温K、風m/s、降水kg/m²（水のmm相当）、積雪深mです。

履歴と製品の変更

CONUSアーカイブは2026年9月9日12 UTC初期値から始まります。過去の地上ファイルにはFRZRが含まれ、履歴全体では42項目、現行製品では41項目です。NOAAは10月15日の改訂で着氷性降雨の積算を削除し、降水種別の診断を変更しました。気圧面製品は8項目です。

RRFS製品との関係

メンバー1～5は個々の予報です。決定論的RRFS製品は別データセットです。平均・ばらつき・確率と、アラスカ・ハワイ・プエルトリコは今後追加します。refsprslevは新しいCONUS製品となり、旧試作版の北米格子や履歴は引き継ぎません。

対応するメンバー製品: refsprslev · 決定論的RRFS 2D · 決定論的RRFS 3D

NOAAの配信と運用開始

現在のデータは実装前の並行運用による予報です。NWSは2026年11月3日の本運用開始を予定していますが、気象状況により延期される場合があります。NOAAはCC0で提供し、出典の明示を求めています。

NOAA / AWS · NWS SCN 26-48 · CC0-1.0

  • アーカイブ開始日: 2026-09-09

    • 気象パラメータ

    パラメータ検索
    0 パラメータ

    パラメータをクリックすると、コピーしやすいJSONセレクタ付きのコンパクトな表で候補を確認できます。コード、level、selector値はAPIが公開する値をそのまま保持します。

    AOTK –Aerosol optical thickness (dimensionless)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    entire atmosphere (considered as a single layer) 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"AOTK","level":"entire atmosphere (considered as a single layer)","info":""}
    APCP –Total Precipitation (kg/m2)
    2 variants
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface acc-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"APCP","level":"surface","info":"acc-1h"}
    surface acc-from-init 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"APCP","level":"surface","info":"acc-from-init"}
    ASNOW –Accumulated snowfall depth (m)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface acc-from-init 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"ASNOW","level":"surface","info":"acc-from-init"}
    CAPE –Convective available potential energy (J/kg)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"CAPE","level":"surface","info":""}
    CEIL –Ceiling (m)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    cloud ceiling 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"CEIL","level":"cloud ceiling","info":""}
    CFRZR –Categorical freezing rain (code)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"CFRZR","level":"surface","info":""}
    CICEP –Categorical ice pellets (code)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"CICEP","level":"surface","info":""}
    CIN –Convective inhibition (J/kg)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"CIN","level":"surface","info":""}
    CPOFP –Percent frozen precipitation (%)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"CPOFP","level":"surface","info":""}
    CRAIN –Categorical rain (code)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"CRAIN","level":"surface","info":""}
    CSNOW –Categorical snow (code)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"CSNOW","level":"surface","info":""}
    DPT –2 metre dewpoint temperature (K)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    2 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"DPT","level":"2 m above ground","info":""}
    DSWRF –Downward shortwave radiation flux (W/m2)
    2 variants
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"DSWRF","level":"surface","info":""}
    surface ave-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"DSWRF","level":"surface","info":"ave-1h"}
    FRZR –Freezing Rain (kg/m2)
    2 variants
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface acc-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"FRZR","level":"surface","info":"acc-1h"}
    surface acc-from-init 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"FRZR","level":"surface","info":"acc-from-init"}
    GUST –Wind speed (gust) (m/s)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"GUST","level":"surface","info":""}
    HCDC –High cloud cover (%)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    high cloud layer 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"HCDC","level":"high cloud layer","info":""}
    HGT –Orography (m)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"HGT","level":"surface","info":""}
    HLCY –Storm relative helicity (m2/s2)
    2 variants
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    1000-0 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"HLCY","level":"1000-0 m above ground","info":""}
    3000-0 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"HLCY","level":"3000-0 m above ground","info":""}
    LCDC –Low cloud cover (%)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    low cloud layer 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"LCDC","level":"low cloud layer","info":""}
    LTNG –Lightning (dimensionless)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    entire atmosphere max-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"LTNG","level":"entire atmosphere","info":"max-1h"}
    MAXDVV –Largest downward vertical velocity (m/s)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    100-1000 mb max-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"MAXDVV","level":"100-1000 mb","info":"max-1h"}
    MAXRH –Maximum relative humidity (%)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    2 m above ground max-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"MAXRH","level":"2 m above ground","info":"max-1h"}
    MAXUVV –Largest upward vertical velocity (m/s)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    100-1000 mb max-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"MAXUVV","level":"100-1000 mb","info":"max-1h"}
    MCDC –Medium cloud cover (%)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    middle cloud layer 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"MCDC","level":"middle cloud layer","info":""}
    MINRH –Minimum Relative Humidity (%)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    2 m above ground min-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"MINRH","level":"2 m above ground","info":"min-1h"}
    MNUPHL –Minimum updraft helicity (m2/s2)
    2 variants
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    3000-0 m above ground min-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"MNUPHL","level":"3000-0 m above ground","info":"min-1h"}
    5000-2000 m above ground min-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"MNUPHL","level":"5000-2000 m above ground","info":"min-1h"}
    MSLET –MSLP (Eta model reduction) (Pa)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    mean sea level 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"MSLET","level":"mean sea level","info":""}
    MXUPHL –Maximum updraft helicity (m2/s2)
    2 variants
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    3000-0 m above ground max-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"MXUPHL","level":"3000-0 m above ground","info":"max-1h"}
    5000-2000 m above ground max-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"MXUPHL","level":"5000-2000 m above ground","info":"max-1h"}
    PRES –Surface pressure (Pa)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"PRES","level":"surface","info":""}
    PWAT –Precipitable water (kg/m2)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    entire atmosphere (considered as a single layer) 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"PWAT","level":"entire atmosphere (considered as a single layer)","info":""}
    REFC –Composite radar reflectivity (dBZ)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    entire atmosphere (considered as a single layer) 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"REFC","level":"entire atmosphere (considered as a single layer)","info":""}
    RETOP –Radar echo top height (m)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    entire atmosphere (considered as a single layer) 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"RETOP","level":"entire atmosphere (considered as a single layer)","info":""}
    RH –2 metre relative humidity (%)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    2 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"RH","level":"2 m above ground","info":""}
    TCDC –Total Cloud Cover (%)
    3 variants
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    boundary layer cloud layer 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"TCDC","level":"boundary layer cloud layer","info":""}
    entire atmosphere (considered as a single layer) 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"TCDC","level":"entire atmosphere (considered as a single layer)","info":""}
    entire atmosphere (considered as a single layer) ave-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"TCDC","level":"entire atmosphere (considered as a single layer)","info":"ave-1h"}
    TMP –2 metre temperature (K)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    2 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"TMP","level":"2 m above ground","info":""}
    UGRD –10 metre U wind component (m/s)
    4 variants
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    10 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"UGRD","level":"10 m above ground","info":""}
    160 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"UGRD","level":"160 m above ground","info":""}
    320 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"UGRD","level":"320 m above ground","info":""}
    80 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"UGRD","level":"80 m above ground","info":""}
    VGRD –10 metre V wind component (m/s)
    4 variants
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    10 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"VGRD","level":"10 m above ground","info":""}
    160 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"VGRD","level":"160 m above ground","info":""}
    320 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"VGRD","level":"320 m above ground","info":""}
    80 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"VGRD","level":"80 m above ground","info":""}
    VIS –Visibility (m)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"VIS","level":"surface","info":""}
    VUCSH –Vertical u-component shear (1/s)
    2 variants
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    0-1000 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"VUCSH","level":"0-1000 m above ground","info":""}
    0-6000 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"VUCSH","level":"0-6000 m above ground","info":""}
    VVCSH –Vertical v-component shear (1/s)
    2 variants
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    0-1000 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"VVCSH","level":"0-1000 m above ground","info":""}
    0-6000 m above ground 0h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"VVCSH","level":"0-6000 m above ground","info":""}
    WIND –Time-maximum 10 metre wind speed (m/s)
    1 variant
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    10 m above ground max-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"WIND","level":"10 m above ground","info":"max-1h"}
    var discipline=2 master_table=2 parmcat=4 parm=26 –Wildfire potential (NOAA GSL; source unnamed code 2/4/26) (numeric)
    2 variants
    Source parameter definition

    Wildfire potential (NOAA GSL; source unnamed code 2/4/26) (numeric).

    • Source keeps the literal unnamed GRIB selector; current NOAA code table identifies wildfire potential.
    Level Info Horizon Introduced Selector
    surface ave-0h 0h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"var discipline=2 master_table=2 parmcat=4 parm=26","level":"surface","info":"ave-0h"}
    surface ave-1h 1h-60h 2026-09-09
    {"name":"var discipline=2 master_table=2 parmcat=4 parm=26","level":"surface","info":"ave-1h"}

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