GribStream

REFS CONUSメンバー：3 km格子・14気圧面

GribStreamコード: refsprslev

refsprslev · 500 hPaの風速（色、m/s）とジオポテンシャル高度（6 dam間隔の等値線）、メンバー1。2026年10月22日00 UTC初期値、23日00 UTC有効（+24時間）。風速は公開されたU・V成分から計算。NOAAの本運用前データをGribStreamが描画。
refsprslev · 500 hPaの風速（色、m/s）とジオポテンシャル高度（6 dam間隔の等値線）、メンバー1。2026年10月22日00 UTC初期値、23日00 UTC有効（+24時間）。風速は公開されたU・V成分から計算。NOAAの本運用前データをGribStreamが描画。

14気圧面で大気の5つの予報を比較できます。気温、湿度、風、渦度から、流れや温度構造、対流環境の違いを調べられます。

予報の概要

データセットrefsprslev
格子CONUS · 3 km · 1799 × 1059
メンバー1, 2, 3, 4, 5
初期時刻（UTC）00 / 06 / 12 / 18 UTC
予報時間+0…60 h · Δt = 1 h
現行の項目数8

850 hPaの気温・湿度、中層の風・ジオポテンシャル高度、上層の渦度を比較し、同じメンバーの地上予報と組み合わせられます。

RRFSの予報計算

NOAAのRapid Refresh Forecast System第1版は、Unified Forecast Systemの領域モデル用Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere（FV3）力学コアを使用します。北米領域の水平格子間隔は3 kmです。本データセットは1,799×1,059点のランベルト正角格子による米国本土出力を提供します。激しい対流、大雨、冬季気象などの短時間予報を目的とし、運用を継続するHRRRを補完します。NOAA GSL: RRFSv1、NCEP: RRFS products。

5メンバーが異なる理由

同一初期時刻のメンバーは、決定論的RRFSに対して初期条件、側面境界条件、物理過程を変化させます。初期の大気状態、領域外から入る気象系、雲や乱流の表現の違いを扱います。同じメンバーの変数を組み合わせると、その予報シナリオの時間発展を保てます。NWS SCN 26-48。

このアンサンブルの構成

本データセットは1回の初期化による5つの個別予報です。NOAAのREFS統計は現行と6時間前のRRFS決定論的・アンサンブル予報に、米国本土とアラスカでは現行と過去のHRRRも組み合わせます。この5メンバーだけの平均は、NOAAが公表するREFS平均・確率とは構成が異なります。NWS SCN 26-48。

解像度と不確実性の限界

3 km格子はメソスケールの構造を表現しますが、雷雨の正確な位置を保証せず、個々の竜巻を解像するものでもありません。未解像過程にはパラメタリゼーションが必要で、RRFSv1も対流パラメタリゼーションを使用します。「対流を許容する」とは、すべての対流を陽に解くという意味ではありません。物理過程と評価：NOAA GSL: RRFSv1、NCEP/EMC evaluation。

5メンバーの閾値超過頻度は20パーセントポイント刻みで、較正済み確率ではありません。全メンバーが一致しても共通の誤差は残り得ます。地点の判断では近隣格子、前後の時刻、連続する初期時刻を比較し、観測で検証してください。変更中のシステムの履歴は定常的な気候統計ではなく、HRRR、HREF、全球アンサンブルに対する精度の優劣も示しません。

気圧面が加える情報

各メンバーは1000～250 hPaの14面に出力されます。モデル本来の鉛直層ではありません。気温・湿度は気団を、風・ジオポテンシャル高度は大気の流れを示します。同じメンバーと有効時刻で気圧面と地上変数を組み合わせてください。限られた鉛直標本では詳細なサウンディング診断に制約があり、気圧面が地形と交差する場合もあります。8変数と各気圧面は下表に掲載しています。

履歴と製品の変更

CONUSアーカイブは2026年9月9日12 UTC初期値から始まります。過去の地上ファイルにはFRZRが含まれ、履歴全体では42項目、現行製品では41項目です。NOAAは10月15日の改訂で着氷性降雨の積算を削除し、降水種別の診断を変更しました。気圧面製品は8項目です。

RRFS製品との関係

メンバー1～5は個々の予報です。決定論的RRFS製品は別データセットです。平均・ばらつき・確率と、アラスカ・ハワイ・プエルトリコは今後追加します。refsprslevは新しいCONUS製品となり、旧試作版の北米格子や履歴は引き継ぎません。

対応するメンバー製品: refs2dfld · 決定論的RRFS 2D · 決定論的RRFS 3D

NOAAの配信と運用開始

現在のデータは実装前の並行運用による予報です。NWSは2026年11月3日の本運用開始を予定していますが、気象状況により延期される場合があります。NOAAはCC0で提供し、出典の明示を求めています。

NOAA / AWS · NWS SCN 26-48 · CC0-1.0

  • アーカイブ開始日: 2026-09-09

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    DPT –2 metre dewpoint temperature (K)
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    HGT –Orography (m)
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    RH –2 metre relative humidity (%)
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    SPFH –Specific humidity (kg/kg)
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    TMP –2 metre temperature (K)
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    UGRD –10 metre U wind component (m/s)
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    VGRD –10 metre V wind component (m/s)
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