ECMWF Integrated Forecast System Ensemble Forecast (IFS Enfo)

Description

The ENFO stream of the Integrated Forecast System provides 50 perturbed members plus one control run, generating a 51 member ensemble that quantifies forecast uncertainty and enables probability based decision making.

This open data subset exposes every member on a 0.25° global grid. Forecasts extend to 360 h (15 days) with four cycles per day (00/06/12/18 UTC). The full ensemble is invaluable for computing probabilities of exceedance, percentile ranges, spread/skill diagnostics, and scenario analyses for sectors like energy, hydrology, agriculture, and severe weather risk management.

Detail

• Product page: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/open-data
• Key Features:
  • 51 member ensemble (50 perturbations + 1 control) with ensemble mean and spread files.
  • 0.25° global coverage.
  • 00, 06, 12 & 18 UTC cycles: steps 0h to 144h every 3h, 150h to 360h every 6h.
  • Released ~1 h after the ECMWF real time dissemination schedule.
  • Comprehensive surface and pressure level parameter suite.
• Resolution: 0.25° (~28 km) global grid.
• Temporal Coverage: Four runs per day (00/06/12/18 UTC); forecasts out to 15 days.
• Primary Use Cases: Probabilistic risk assessment, ensemble mean guidance, percentile scenarios, renewable energy forecasting, hydrological modelling, aviation planning, research & model validation.

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