The ENFO stream of the Integrated Forecasting System provides 50 perturbed members plus one control run, generating a 51 member ensemble that quantifies forecast uncertainty and enables probability based decision
making.
This open data subset exposes every member on a 0.25° global grid. Forecasts extend to 360 h (15 days) with four cycles per day (00/06/12/18 UTC). The full ensemble is invaluable for computing probabilities of exceedance, percentile ranges, spread/skill
diagnostics, and scenario analyses for sectors like energy, hydrology, agriculture, and severe weather risk management.
51 member ensemble (50 perturbations + 1 control) with ensemble mean and spread files.
0.25° global coverage.
00, 06, 12 & 18 UTC cycles: steps 0h to 144h every 3h, 150h to 360h every 6h.
Released ~1 h after the ECMWF real time dissemination schedule.
Comprehensive surface and pressure level parameter suite.
Resolution: 0.25° (~28 km) global grid.
Temporal Coverage: Four runs per day (00/06/12/18 UTC); forecasts out to 15 days.
Primary Use Cases: Probabilistic risk assessment, ensemble mean guidance, percentile scenarios, renewable energy forecasting, hydrological modelling, aviation planning, research & model validation.
Parameters
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Maximum 3‑second wind gust at 10 m height over the previous 3 hours.
ECMWF estimates gusts within each time step using surface stress, friction, wind shear, and stability, then selects the maximum over the 3‑hour window.
Comparisons to observations require care because observations are point measurements.