AIFS Ensemble is ECMWF’s AI-based probabilistic global forecast. It generates multiple members with a stochastic ML model trained on ERA5 reanalysis and IFS operational analyses, then initializes member-for-member from the IFS Ensemble. The system
uses CRPS-based probabilistic training to produce calibrated spread and skill. Outputs include standard surface variables and pressure-level fields (temperature, wind, humidity, geopotential, vertical velocity), plus ensemble statistics and event
probabilities. Related suite: AIFS Oper.