ECMWF Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System Ensemble (AIFS Ensemble)

Name: ECMWF AIFS Ensemble Global AI Forecasts via GribStream
Creator: ECMWF
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

GribStream Code: aifsenfo

Description

AIFS Ensemble is ECMWF’s AI-based probabilistic global forecast. It generates multiple members with a stochastic ML model trained on reanalysis and fine-tuned on operational analyses, then initializes member-for-member from the IFS Ensemble. The system is trained with a probabilistic objective (e.g., CRPS) to produce calibrated spread and skill. Outputs include standard surface variables and pressure-level fields (temperature, wind, humidity, geopotential, vertical velocity), plus ensemble statistics and event probabilities. Related suite: AIFS Oper.

Detail

Product page: ECMWF Open Data
Ensemble: 51 members per run (1 control, 50 perturbed).
Cycles: 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC.
Forecast steps: 6-hourly to 360 h (15 days).
Grid: 0.25° global.
Primary uses: probabilistic guidance, risk quantification, benchmarking vs. physics ensembles, research on extremes.

Parameters:

Name	Level	Description	Introduced	Max Horizon
100u	sfc	100m U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
100v	sfc	100m V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
10u	sfc	10m U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
10v	sfc	10m V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
2d	sfc	2m Dewpoint Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
2t	sfc	2m Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
hcc	sfc	High cloud cover (%)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
lcc	sfc	Low cloud cover (%)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
lsm	sfc	Land-Sea Mask (land=1/sea=0)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	0
msl	sfc	Mean Sea Level Pressure (Pa)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 100	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 1000	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 150	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 200	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 250	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 300	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 400	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 50	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 500	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 600	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 700	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 850	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
q	pl 925	Specific Humidity (kg/kg)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
rowe	sfc	Runoff water equivalent (surface plus subsurface) (kg/m^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
sdor	sfc	Orographic Standard Deviation (m)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	0
sf	sfc	Snowfall (m)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
skt	sfc	Skin temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
slor	sfc	Slope of sub-gridscale orography (%)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	0
sot	sol 1	Soil Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
sot	sol 2	Soil Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
sp	sfc	Surface Pressure (Pa)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
ssrd	sfc	Surface Net Downward Shortwave Radiation (J/m^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
strd	sfc	Surface Net Downward Longwave Radiation (J/m^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 100	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 1000	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 150	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 200	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 250	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 300	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 400	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 50	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 500	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 600	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 700	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 850	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
t	pl 925	Temperature (K)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
tcc	sfc	Total cloud cover (%)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
tcw	sfc	Total Column Water (kg/m^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
tp	sfc	Total Precipitation (m)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 100	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 1000	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 150	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 200	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 250	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 300	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 400	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 50	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 500	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 600	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 700	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 850	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
u	pl 925	U-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 100	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 1000	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 150	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 200	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 250	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 300	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 400	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 50	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 500	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 600	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 700	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 850	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
v	pl 925	V-Component of Wind (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 100	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 1000	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 150	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 200	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 250	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 300	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 400	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 50	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 500	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 600	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 700	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 850	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
w	pl 925	Vertical Velocity (m/s)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 100	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 1000	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 150	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 200	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 250	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 300	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 400	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 50	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 500	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 600	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 700	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 850	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	pl 925	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	360
z	sfc	Geopotential (m^2/s^2)	2025-07-02T00:00:00Z	0