Global Ensemble Forecast System (Atmos Mean GEFS)

Description

The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a probabilistic weather prediction system managed by NOAA. It utilizes multiple ensemble members to generate a range of possible outcomes, enhancing the ability to assess weather uncertainties and probabilities. The ensemble approach helps to capture the range of possible weather scenarios by running slightly different initial conditions or model configurations, which are referred to as ensemble members or components.

The GEFS Atmos Ensemble Mean is a statistical aggregation of all atmospheric ensemble members, providing a single, representative forecast from the GEFS system. This mean forecast smooths out the variability inherent in individual ensemble members, offering a balanced and reliable view of expected atmospheric conditions such as temperature, wind, and precipitation. The ensemble mean is commonly used as a baseline in risk management, operational planning, and research, giving users a robust and stable prediction while still acknowledging underlying forecast uncertainties.

Detail

• Product page: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/global-forecast/
• Key Features:
  • Aggregates the outcomes of multiple ensemble members to produce a mean forecast, smoothing out extreme variations and providing a more stable prediction.
  • Facilitates improved decision-making in weather-sensitive sectors by offering a balanced view of expected atmospheric conditions.
  • Incorporates extensive meteorological data from global measurement networks and satellites.
• Resolution: 0.25° global grid.
• Temporal Coverage: Updated four times daily, with forecasts extending up to 16 days.
• Primary Use Cases: General weather forecasting, agricultural planning, emergency management, and public safety.

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