GribStream

ECMWF IFS ENS 0.1° 気象現象の確率予報

GribStreamコード: ifsenfoprob0p1

ECMWF IFS ENS 0.1° 気象現象の確率予報: 10月29日12 UTC～30日12 UTCの24時間降水量が25 mm以上となるECMWF確率（%）。
ifsenfoprob0p1 · 10月29日12 UTC～30日12 UTCの24時間降水量が25 mm以上となるECMWF確率（%）。 保存済み予報の例：2026年10月20日12 UTC初期値、10月30日12 UTC有効（+240時間）。0.1°出力格子の最近傍セルで描画。データ：ECMWF、CC BY 4.0。可視化：GribStream。

この予報について

0.1°のECMWF確率予報。24時間降水量・突風のしきい値と850 hPa気温偏差を最大15日先まで提供します。

ECMWF IFSとは

IFSはIntegrated Forecasting System（統合予報システム）の略です。欧州中期予報センター（ECMWF）がMétéo-Franceと協力して開発し、データ同化によって観測を取り込み、物理方程式で地球システムの時間変化を計算します。大気・陸面・海洋・波浪の各要素が情報を交換します。これらは最大15日先までの短期・中期予報製品です。ECMWFは機械学習を用いる別系統のAIFSも開発しています。 ECMWF公式資料.

この製品の用途

IFSアンサンブルを、例えば24時間で25 mm以上の降水といった明確な現象の確率にまとめた製品です。850 hPaの気温偏差はモデル気候値からのずれを表し、平年より著しく暖かい・冷たい気団の把握に役立ちます。 ECMWF公式資料.

詳細

00・12 UTC、+360時間まで12時間間隔。瞬間的な現象は+12時間から、24時間の現象は+24、+36、…、+360時間を区間の終端とし、隣接する区間は12時間重なります。
00・12 UTC、+360時間まで12時間間隔。瞬間的な現象は+12時間から、24時間の現象は+24、+36、…、+360時間を区間の終端とし、隣接する区間は12時間重なります。

関連データセット

気象パラメータ

パラメータ検索
0 パラメータ

パラメータをクリックすると、コピーしやすいJSONセレクタ付きのコンパクトな表で候補を確認できます。コード、level、selector値はAPIが公開する値をそのまま保持します。

10fgg10 –Probability of 24-hour maximum 10 m wind gust at least 10 m/s (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131100

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated gust threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"10fgg10","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
10fgg15 –Probability of 24-hour maximum 10 m wind gust at least 15 m/s (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131070

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated gust threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"10fgg15","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
10fgg25 –Probability of 24-hour maximum 10 m wind gust at least 25 m/s (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131072

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated gust threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"10fgg25","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
ptsa_gt_1p5stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1.5 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133094

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_gt_1p5stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_gt_1stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133093

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_gt_1stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_gt_2stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 2 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133095

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_gt_2stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_lt_1p5stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -1.5 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133097

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_lt_1p5stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_lt_1stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -1 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133096

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_lt_1stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_lt_2stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -2 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133098

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_lt_2stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
tpg1 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 1 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131060

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg1","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg10 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 10 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131062

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg10","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg100 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 100 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131085

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg100","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg20 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 20 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131063

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg20","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg25 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 25 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131098

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg25","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg5 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 5 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131061

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg5","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg50 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 50 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131099

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg50","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}

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