GribStream

ECMWF IFS ENS 0.1° weather probabilities

GribStream Code: ifsenfoprob0p1

ECMWF IFS ENS 0.1° weather probabilities: ECMWF probability (%) of at least 25 mm precipitation during 29 October 12 UTC–30 October 12 UTC (24 hours).
ifsenfoprob0p1 · ECMWF probability (%) of at least 25 mm precipitation during 29 October 12 UTC–30 October 12 UTC (24 hours). Historical example: run 20 October 2026 12 UTC; valid 30 October 2026 12 UTC (+240 h). Nearest-cell rendering of the 0.1° output grid. Source: ECMWF, CC BY 4.0; visualization: GribStream.

About this forecast

ECMWF weather-event probabilities at 0.1° for 24-hour rain and gust thresholds and 850 hPa temperature anomalies, with guidance to 15 days.

What is ECMWF IFS?

IFS stands for Integrated Forecasting System. Developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in cooperation with Météo-France, it combines observations through data assimilation and advances a global Earth-system model using physical equations. Its atmosphere, land, ocean and wave components exchange information. These products belong to the short- and medium-range forecast family, extending to 15 days; ECMWF also develops the separate, machine-learning-based AIFS family. ECMWF documentation.

What this product is for

This product turns the IFS ensemble into probabilities for defined weather events. It answers threshold questions directly, such as the chance of at least 25 mm of rain in a 24-hour period. Temperature-anomaly probabilities describe departures from model climatology at 850 hPa, helping identify unusually warm or cold air masses. ECMWF documentation.

Detail

00 and 12 UTC, every 12 h to +360 h. Instantaneous events begin at +12 h; 24-hour events end at +24, +36, …, +360 h, so adjacent windows overlap by 12 h.
00 and 12 UTC, every 12 h to +360 h. Instantaneous events begin at +12 h; 24-hour events end at +24, +36, …, +360 h, so adjacent windows overlap by 12 h.

Related datasets

Parameters

Search parameters
0 parameters

Click a parameter to reveal variants in a compact table with ready-to-copy JSON selectors.

10fgg10 –Probability of 24-hour maximum 10 m wind gust at least 10 m/s (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131100

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated gust threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"10fgg10","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
10fgg15 –Probability of 24-hour maximum 10 m wind gust at least 15 m/s (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131070

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated gust threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"10fgg15","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
10fgg25 –Probability of 24-hour maximum 10 m wind gust at least 25 m/s (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131072

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated gust threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"10fgg25","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
ptsa_gt_1p5stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1.5 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133094

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_gt_1p5stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_gt_1stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133093

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_gt_1stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_gt_2stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 2 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133095

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_gt_2stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_lt_1p5stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -1.5 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133097

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_lt_1p5stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_lt_1stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -1 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133096

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_lt_1stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_lt_2stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -2 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133098

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_lt_2stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
tpg1 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 1 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131060

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg1","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg10 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 10 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131062

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg10","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg100 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 100 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131085

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg100","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg20 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 20 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131063

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg20","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg25 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 25 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131098

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg25","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg5 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 5 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131061

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg5","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg50 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 50 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131099

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg50","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}

No parameters match your search.