GribStream

ECMWF IFS ENS 0.1°: probabilidades meteorológicas

Código GribStream: ifsenfoprob0p1

ECMWF IFS ENS 0.1°: probabilidades meteorológicas: Probabilidade ECMWF (%) de pelo menos 25 mm de precipitação de 29 de outubro às 12 UTC a 30 de outubro às 12 UTC (24 horas).
ifsenfoprob0p1 · Probabilidade ECMWF (%) de pelo menos 25 mm de precipitação de 29 de outubro às 12 UTC a 30 de outubro às 12 UTC (24 horas). Exemplo histórico: ciclo de 20 de outubro de 2026 às 12 UTC; válido em 30 de outubro às 12 UTC (+240 h). Representação pela célula mais próxima da grade de 0.1°. Fonte: ECMWF, CC BY 4.0; gráfico: GribStream.

Sobre esta previsão

Probabilidades ECMWF a 0.1° de chuva e rajadas em 24 horas e anomalias de temperatura em 850 hPa, até 15 dias.

O que é o ECMWF IFS?

IFS significa Integrated Forecasting System, ou Sistema Integrado de Previsão. O Centro Europeu de Previsões Meteorológicas de Médio Prazo (ECMWF) o desenvolve em cooperação com a Météo-France. O sistema assimila observações e calcula a evolução do sistema terrestre por equações físicas, com intercâmbio entre atmosfera, solo, oceano e ondas. Estes produtos cobrem o curto e médio prazo, até 15 dias; o ECMWF também desenvolve a família AIFS, baseada em aprendizado de máquina. Documentação do ECMWF.

Para que serve este produto

O produto traduz o ensemble IFS em probabilidades de eventos definidos, como pelo menos 25 mm de chuva em 24 horas. Anomalias térmicas em 850 hPa são desvios em relação à climatologia do modelo e ajudam a identificar massas de ar excepcionalmente quentes ou frias. Documentação do ECMWF.

Detalhes

00 e 12 UTC, a cada 12 h até +360 h. Os eventos instantâneos começam em +12 h; as janelas de 24 horas terminam em +24, +36, …, +360 h e se sobrepõem por 12 h.
00 e 12 UTC, a cada 12 h até +360 h. Os eventos instantâneos começam em +12 h; as janelas de 24 horas terminam em +24, +36, …, +360 h e se sobrepõem por 12 h.

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10fgg10 –Probability of 24-hour maximum 10 m wind gust at least 10 m/s (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131100

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated gust threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"10fgg10","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
10fgg15 –Probability of 24-hour maximum 10 m wind gust at least 15 m/s (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131070

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated gust threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"10fgg15","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
10fgg25 –Probability of 24-hour maximum 10 m wind gust at least 25 m/s (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131072

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated gust threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"10fgg25","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
ptsa_gt_1p5stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1.5 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133094

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_gt_1p5stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_gt_1stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133093

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_gt_1stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_gt_2stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 2 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133095

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_gt_2stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_lt_1p5stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -1.5 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133097

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_lt_1p5stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_lt_1stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -1 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133096

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_lt_1stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
ptsa_lt_2stdev –Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -2 standard deviations (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 133098

ECMWF param DB

Instantaneous probability at 850 hPa, expressed in percent. The threshold applies to the standardized anomaly, not absolute temperature.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
pl 850 12h-360h
{"name":"ptsa_lt_2stdev","level":"pl 850","info":""}
tpg1 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 1 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131060

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg1","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg10 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 10 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131062

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg10","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg100 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 100 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131085

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg100","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg20 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 20 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131063

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg20","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg25 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 25 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131098

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg25","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg5 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 5 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131061

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg5","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}
tpg50 –Probability of 24-hour total precipitation at least 50 mm (%)
1 variant

Parameter ID 131099

ECMWF param DB

Percentage of the ensemble reaching the stated precipitation threshold over the preceding 24 hours.

  • Values are percentages (0–100). Daily event selectors use info=24h and are timestamped at the end of a rolling 24-hour window; consecutive windows overlap by 12 hours. Instantaneous anomaly selectors use empty info.
Level Info Horizon Selector
sfc 24h 24h-360h
{"name":"tpg50","level":"sfc","info":"24h"}

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